Do Not Regret, Investigate

Motivational culture offers two equally simple extremes: regret nothing, or judge yourself for the past forever. The first sounds cheerful and is almost useless; the second produces punishment without new knowledge.

Regret reports that the present person would have chosen differently. That can be important information. It makes us change rules, apologize, stop repeating a mistake and sometimes finally read the instructions before assembling the wardrobe.

Regret becomes useless when it stops producing decisions.

A useful review of the past answers several questions:

• what did I know at that moment;
• what did I not know;
• which assumption turned out to be wrong;
• what depended on me;
• what was chance;
• which sign did I miss;
• which rule is worth changing.

After that the case can be closed.

Constantly judging your former self by information obtained later is unfair and methodologically dubious. The winning lottery combination always looks obvious after the draw.

The past also predicts the future badly if you mechanically extend a line you have found. We notice patterns even where there were coincidences, and treat conditions as stable when they have already changed.

Models can be extracted from the past. A timetable for the future cannot be demanded of it. Regret should end a lesson, not become a way of living.

A man sold his flat a year before prices doubled and has carried it around for five years as proof of his own stupidity. An investigation looks different: what was known then, what the forecasts were, why the money was needed, what would have happened under other decisions. Usually it turns out that the choice was made among three bad options and was not the worst of them. This does not bring the money back, but it lets the case be closed.

The difference between a review and a self-trial is measured by the result. A review outputs a changed rule: from now on I do not sign this sort of thing without a second opinion. A self-trial outputs nothing except a readiness to repeat the same mistake in a new suit.